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Bodog Poker Rigged Or Fair? - Results

We have analysed hands from 6max cash games played at Bodog Poker to see if they were rigged for good players to receive more 'bad beats' than they should. Bodog is one of the major poker sites that still accept players from the USA.

We started by downloading a sample of 1.1 million real poker hands, importing to Poker Tracker and selecting the pre-flop all-ins from these.

For the player that called the all-in we compared the expected number of hands won (in an ideal world) with the actual number of hands that won.

If there was no rigging at Bodog the expected and actual numbers should be very close:

Total No. Hands Expected No. Hands Won Actual No. Hands Won  Deviation
7775 4028 4019.5 -8.5

So, from just under 8000 hands the actual number of hands won differs from expected by 9 hands... is this "very close"? To answer this question we had to calculate the standard deviation for the sample - if the actual deviation is within 2 standard deviations these numbers can be considered "very close".

Please note that this explanation of standard deviations is simplified. For a more complete explanation of how to compare actual deviation with standard deviation read this article about normal distributions.

Standard Deviation Deviation
40 -8.5

The results show that the actual deviation is well within 2 standard deviations and therefore the sample can be considered unbiased.

Next, we separated the pre-flop all-ins into hands that were ahead pre-flop and hands that were behind pre-flop and repeated the comparison.

If Bodog was rigged against good players then the 'ahead' hands should win less than expected and 'behind' hands should win more than expected. However, if there was no bias the expected and actual results should be very close.

Group of Hands Total No. Hands Expected No. Hands Won Actual No. Hands Won Deviation Standard Deviation
Ahead 4078 2832 2861 29 28
Behind 3691 1193 1156 -37 28

The results show that in both cases the actual deviation is well within 2 standard deviations and therefore the sample can be considered unbiased.

Conclusion & Limitations

We can conclude that Bodog Poker was fair with respect to 'bad beats' at the time of testing - there is no evidence of Bodog being rigged.

This test was performed on a specific game type (5c/10c 6-max tables) during a specific period (May-Aug 2011) at a specific poker site (Bodog) and the results can be considered true for these conditions only. Although these results are relevant to online poker in general other circumstances were not tested. Other poker sites may use different methods for the distribution of cards and other game types (e.g. multi-table tournament hold'em) or levels (e.g. $2/$4) at Bodog could also use different programs for the deal. It is also true that the method of dealing at a given site could change in the future as the site updates.

Please note that the explanation of the analysis described on this page is simplified so that it can be viewed easily and at a glance. If you want more detail and a full explanation of the methods you should view the full report.

Online Poker Watchdog intends to continue to perform this test on other poker sites for a variety of games and levels.